En-bloc spondylectomy in the lumbar spine: indications, results and complications in a series of 47 patients affected by primary malignant bone tumors.

INTRODUCTION: Wide Surgery is the reference treatment for malignant and aggressive benign primary bone tumors in the spine. When located in the lumbar spine, En-Bloc Spondylectomy (EBS) remains a complex challenge. Moreover, surgery is complicated by the presence of the diaphragm in the thoracolumbar junction and the hinderance of the iliac wings at the lumbosacral levels. Therefore, EBS in the lumbar spine frequently requires combined approaches. The purpose of this study is to describe clinical presentation, tumor characteristics and results of a series of 47 consecutive patients affected by malignant primary bone tumors of the lumbar spine who underwent EBS. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 47 patients were reviewed. Complications were distinguished in early and late whether they occurred before or after 30 days from surgery. Overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS) and local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier product-limit method from surgery until relapse or death. RESULTS: 27 patients presented to observation after a first intralesional approach in a non-specialized center. Chordoma was the most represented histotype. Vertebrectomies were: 23 one-level, 10 two-level, 12 three-level and 2 four-level. Reconstructions were always carried out with screws and rods. The main postoperative complication was blood loss, while hardware failure was the main long-term complication. The 5-year LRFS was 75.5%, the 5-year DFS was 54.3%, and 5-year OS was 63.6%. CONCLUSIONS: The surgical margin obtained during the index surgery was statistically associated with Local Recurrence, DFS and OS, underlining the importance of treating patients in reference centers.

The Long-Term Impacts of an Integrated Care Programme on Hospital Utilisation among Older Adults in the South of England: A Synthetic Control Study.

Introduction: Reducing hospital use is often viewed as a possible positive consequence of introducing integrated care (IC). We investigated the impact of an IC programme in North East Hampshire and Farnham (NEHF), in southern England, on hospital utilisation among older adults over a 55 months period. Method: We used a Generalised Synthetic Control design to investigate the effect of implementing IC in NEHF between 2015 and 2020. For a range of hospital use outcomes, we estimated the trajectory that each would have followed in the absence of IC and compared it with the actual trajectory to estimate the potential impact of IC. Results: Three years into the programme, emergency admission rates started reducing in NEHF relative to its synthetic control, particularly those resulting in overnight hospital stays. By year 5 of the study overall emergency admission rates were 9.8% lower (95% confidence interval: -17.2% to -0.6%). We found no sustained difference in rates of emergency department (ED) visits, and average length of hospital stay was significantly higher from year 2. Conclusion: An IC programme in NEHF led to lower than estimated emergency admission rates; however, the interpretation of the impact of IC on admissions is complicated as lower rates did not appear until three years into the programme and the reliability of the synthetic control weakens over a long time horizon. There was no sustained change in ED visit rates.

Pelvic ring reconstruction with tibial allograft, screws and rods following enneking type I and IV resection of primary bone tumors.

INTRODUCTION: Surgery of primary malignant tumors involving the sacroiliac joint requires wide resection, which often interrupts the pelvic ring. Nowadays, restoration of the pelvic ring to provide stability and which technique is most fitting remain subject to debate. The aim of this study is to evaluate the results of pelvic reconstruction with pedicle screw instrumentation and tibial allograft following Enneking Type I-IV resections. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All patients who underwent reconstruction with tibial allograft, screws and rods after resection of areas I and IV for primary bone tumors between 2017 and 2022 were reviewed. Clinical and radiological characteristics, fusion rate and functional results were analyzed. The MSTS score and the TESS were used to evaluate functional results. RESULTS: Seven patients were included in the study. Chondrosarcoma was the most common histology. Only four patients reported pain. No fractures were observed at tumor diagnosis. Computer-assisted navigation was used in six cases. Reconstruction was performed in four cases with a screw inserted in the homolateral L5 pedicle and in the ischium, in two cases with a screw in the homolateral L4 pedicle and another in the homolateral L5 pedicle, in the last case with two screws inserted in L4 and L5, one screw in the ischium and another one in the residual iliac wing. In this case a contralateral stabilization was also carried out. The spine screws and the iliac screws were connected with a rod. The mean follow-up for all 7 patients was 37 months. One patient (16.6%) died due to general complications not directly related to the surgery; while the others are alive and apparently free of disease. Complete fusion was obtained in four out of seven patients and the average time for fusion was 9 months. The average MSTS score and TESS were 58.7% and 57.8%, respectively. DISCUSSION: The need for reconstruction is thoroughly debated in literature. The advantages of restoring posterior pelvis stability are the prevention of long-term pain associated with limb shortening and secondary scoliosis. Re-establishment of the pelvic ring can be achieved through synthetic, biologic or hybrid reconstructions. CONCLUSIONS: More studies that assess the surgical consequences at long-term follow-up and help clarify the indications for reconstruction and the specific technique are necessary to confirm our preliminary results.

Eco-Physiological Screening of Different Tomato Genotypes in Response to High Temperatures: A Combined Field-to-Laboratory Approach.

High temperatures represent a limitation for growth and development of many crop species. Several studies have demonstrated that the yield reduction of tomato under high temperatures and drought is mainly due to a photosynthetic decline. In this paper, a set of 15 tomato genotypes were screened for tolerance to elevated temperatures by cultivating plants under plastic walk-in tunnels. To assess the potential tolerance of tomato genotypes to high temperatures, measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence, pigments content and leaf functional traits have been carried out together with the evaluation of the final yields. Based on the greenhouse trials, a group of eight putative heat-sensitive and heat-tolerant tomato genotypes was selected for laboratory experiments aimed at investigating the effects of short-term high temperatures treatments in controlled conditions. The chlorophyll fluorescence induction kinetics were recorded on detached leaves treated for 60 min at 35 °C or at 45 °C. The last treatment significantly affected the photosystem II (PSII) photochemical efficiency (namely maximum PSII quantum efficiency, Fv/Fm, and quantum yield of PSII electron transport, ΦPSII) and the non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) in the majority of genotypes. The short-term heat shock treatments also led to significant differences in the shape of the slow Kautsky kinetics and its significant time points (chlorophyll fluorescence levels minimum O, peak P, semi-steady state S, maximum M, terminal steady state T) compared to the control, demonstrating heat shock-induced changes in PSII functionality. Genotypes potentially tolerant to high temperatures have been identified. Our findings support the idea that chlorophyll fluorescence parameters (i.e., ΦPSII or NPQ) and some leaf functional traits may be used as a tool to detect high temperatures-tolerant tomato cultivars.

A novel method for identifying care home residents in England: a validation study.

INTRODUCTION: The ability to identify residents of care homes in routinely collected health care data is key to informing healthcare planning decisions and delivery initiatives targeting the older and frail population. Health-care planning and delivery implications at national level concerning this population subgroup have considerably and suddenly grown in urgency following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has especially hit care homes. The range of applicability of this information has widened with the increased availability in England of retrospectively collected administrative databases, holding rich patient-level details on health and prognostic status who have made or are in contact with the National Health Service. In practice lack of a national registry of care homes residents in England complicates assessing an individual's care home residency status, which has been typically identified via manual address matching from pseudonymised patient-level healthcare databases linked with publicly availably care home address information. OBJECTIVES: To examine a novel methodology based on linking unique care home address identifiers with primary care patient registration data, enabling routine identification of care home residents in health-care data. METHODS: This study benchmarks the proposed strategy against the manual address matching standard approach through a diagnostic assessment of a stratified random sample of care home post codes in England. RESULTS: Derived estimates of diagnostic performance, albeit showing a non-insignificant false negative rate (21.98%), highlight a remarkable true negative rate (99.69%) and positive predictive value (99.35%) as well as a satisfactory negative predictive value (88.25%). CONCLUSIONS: The validation exercise lends confidence to the reliability of the novel address matching method as a viable and general alternative to manual address matching.

Effect on secondary care of providing enhanced support to residential and nursing home residents: a subgroup analysis of a retrospective matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Thirteen residential care homes and 10 nursing homes specialising in older people in Rushcliffe, England, participated in an improvement programme. The enhanced support provided included regular visits from named general practitioners and additional training for care home staff. We assessed and compared the effect on hospital use for residents in residential and nursing homes, respectively. METHODS: Using linked care home and administrative hospital data, we examined people aged 65 years or over who moved to a participating care home between 2014 and 2016 (n=568). We selected matched control residents who had similar characteristics to the residents receiving enhanced support and moved to similar care homes not participating in the enhanced support (n=568). Differences in hospital use were assessed for residents of each type of care home using multivariable regression. RESULTS: Residents of participating residential care homes showed lower rates of potentially avoidable emergency admissions (rate ratio 0.50, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.82), emergency admissions (rate ratio 0.60, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.86) and Accident & Emergency attendances (0.57, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.81) than matched controls. Hospital bed days, outpatient attendances and the proportion of deaths that occurred out of hospital were not statistically different. For nursing home residents, there were no significant differences for any outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The enhanced support was associated with lower emergency hospital use for older people living in residential care homes but not for people living in nursing homes. This might be because there was more potential to reduce emergency care for people in residential care homes. In nursing homes, improvement programmes may need to be more tailored to residents' needs or the context of providing care in that setting.

Value of Information: Sensitivity Analysis and Research Design in Bayesian Evidence Synthesis.

Suppose we have a Bayesian model that combines evidence from several different sources. We want to know which model parameters most affect the estimate or decision from the model, or which of the parameter uncertainties drive the decision uncertainty. Furthermore, we want to prioritize what further data should be collected. These questions can be addressed by Value of Information (VoI) analysis, in which we estimate expected reductions in loss from learning specific parameters or collecting data of a given design. We describe the theory and practice of VoI for Bayesian evidence synthesis, using and extending ideas from health economics, computer modeling and Bayesian design. The methods are general to a range of decision problems including point estimation and choices between discrete actions. We apply them to a model for estimating prevalence of HIV infection, combining indirect information from surveys, registers, and expert beliefs. This analysis shows which parameters contribute most of the uncertainty about each prevalence estimate, and the expected improvements in precision from specific amounts of additional data. These benefits can be traded with the costs of sampling to determine an optimal sample size. Supplementary materials for this article, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work, are available as an online supplement.

Repeated Stand-Replacing Crown Fires Affect Seed Morphology and Germination in Aleppo pine.

Post-fire reproductive niche of Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) is deeply interlaced with fire products. Indeed, the high pH and low osmotic potentials of ash beds under burnt crowns constitute the main constraints to seed germination. In this study, we aim to investigate whether fire recurrence, through the physico-chemical constraints imposed by the ash beds, affects the reproduction ability of P. halepensis at the germination stage. To this aim, Aleppo pine seeds were collected in neighboring even-aged stands subjected to 0, 1, or 2 fires (namely fire cohorts), and seed morphology and germination performance, in terms of cumulative germination and germination kinetics, were studied under increasing osmotic potentials (from 0.0 to -1.2 MPa) and pH (from 6 to 11). Besides fire history, the role of ontogenetic age of mother plants on seed morphology and germination was also investigated. Differences in seed morphology among the three cohorts have been highlighted in a multivariate context, with anisotropic enlargement of the seeds produced by pine stands experiencing repeated fires. The patterns of seed germination varied primarily in relation to the fire cohort, with seeds from the pine stand experiencing repeated fires exhibiting enhanced tolerance to pH stress. Conversely, germination performances under osmotic constraints mainly depends on tree ontogenetic stage, with an involvement of fire history especially in the timing of seed germination. Our results suggest that, at least in the short term, fire recurrence does not constrain the reproduction ability of Aleppo pine. These results highlight the need for further research to elucidate the mechanisms behind these responses to recurrent fires.

A Risk Assessment of Antibiotic Pan-Drug-Resistance in the UK: Bayesian Analysis of an Expert Elicitation Study.

To inform the UK antimicrobial resistance strategy, a risk assessment was undertaken of the likelihood, over a five-year time-frame, of the emergence and widespread dissemination of pan-drug-resistant (PDR) Gram-negative bacteria that would pose a major public health threat by compromising effective healthcare delivery. Subsequent impact over five- and 20-year time-frames was assessed in terms of morbidity and mortality attributable to PDR Gram-negative bacteraemia. A Bayesian approach, combining available data with expert prior opinion, was used to determine the probability of the emergence, persistence and spread of PDR bacteria. Overall probability was modelled using Monte Carlo simulation. Estimates of impact were also obtained using Bayesian methods. The estimated probability of widespread occurrence of PDR pathogens within five years was 0.2 (95% credibility interval (CrI): 0.07-0.37). Estimated annual numbers of PDR Gram-negative bacteraemias at five and 20 years were 6800 (95% CrI: 400-58,600) and 22,800 (95% CrI: 1500-160,000), respectively; corresponding estimates of excess deaths were 1900 (95% CrI: 0-23,000) and 6400 (95% CrI: 0-64,000). Over 20 years, cumulative estimates indicate 284,000 (95% CrI: 17,000-1,990,000) cases of PDR Gram-negative bacteraemia, leading to an estimated 79,000 (95% CrI: 0-821,000) deaths. This risk assessment reinforces the need for urgent national and international action to tackle antibiotic resistance.

Monitoring of the HIV Epidemic Using Routinely Collected Data: The Case of the United Kingdom.

We report on measures used to monitor the response to the UK HIV epidemic. We present analyses of routine data on HIV testing, diagnosis and care, and of CD4 back-calculation models to estimate country of HIV acquisition and incidence. Over the past decade, HIV and AIDS diagnoses and deaths declined while HIV testing coverage increased. Linkage into care, retention in care, and viral suppression was high with few socio-demographic differences. However, in 2013, incidence among MSM, and undiagnosed infection, also remained high, and more than half of heterosexuals newly diagnosed with HIV (the majority of whom were born-abroad) probably acquired HIV in the UK and were diagnosed late. HIV care following diagnosis is excellent in the UK. Improvements in testing and prevention are required to reduce undiagnosed infection, incidence and late diagnoses. Routinely collected laboratory and clinic data is a low cost, robust and timely mechanism to monitor the public health response to national HIV epidemics.

Changing Patterns of Undiagnosed HIV Infection in the Netherlands: Who Benefits Most from Intensified HIV Test and Treat Policies?

OBJECTIVES: To estimate HIV prevalence, the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) and the undiagnosed proportion in the Netherlands for 2012, and to compare these with published 2007 estimates. DESIGN: Synthesis of all available data sources. METHODS: Multi-Parameter Evidence Synthesis (MPES) was used to obtain estimates in mutually exclusive key populations at higher risk in three geographical regions (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, rest of the Netherlands). Data sources included HIV prevalence surveys, diagnoses at STI clinics, and registered cases in HIV care. Group specific estimates were reported as Bayesian posterior medians and 95% credible intervals (CrI). RESULTS: The 2012 model estimated 24,350 PLWHA (95% CrI 20,420-31,280) aged 15-70 years; 2,906 (+14%) more than in 2007. The estimated population HIV prevalence was 0.20% (95% CrI 0.17-0.26%). The overall proportion of undiagnosed HIV was lower in 2012 (34%, 95% CrI 22-49%) compared to 2007 (40%, 95% CrI 25-55%). After MSM, migrants from sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean formed the largest groups of PLWHA, but proportions of undiagnosed HIV remained high in these groups, 48% and 44% respectively. Amsterdam had lowest proportions undiagnosed for most key populations at higher risk, including MSM and migrants. CONCLUSIONS: In 2012, the number of PLWHA was higher compared to 2007, while the proportion of undiagnosed HIV was lower, especially among MSM. Higher HIV testing rates, earlier treatment, and an improved life expectancy may explain these differences. HIV interventions need to be expanded in all key populations at higher risk, with special focus on migrants and key populationsliving outside of Amsterdam.

Impact of TB on the survival of people living with HIV infection in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

INTRODUCTION: The impact of TB disease on survival in people living with HIV in high resource settings is not well documented in the antiretroviral treatment (ART) era. We calculated TB incidence rates and compared the mortality of persons with and without HIV-TB in a UK HIV cohort in the post-ART era, to determine the impact of HIV-TB on survival in the UK. METHODS: We linked the national cohort of persons (aged ≥15 years) diagnosed with HIV between 2000 and 2008 in England, Wales and Northern Ireland with the national TB register and deaths from the Office of National Statistics. We compared all-cause and AIDS-specific mortality in patients with and without TB by estimating HRs using Cox regression modelling allowing for potential predictors. RESULTS: Overall, 3188 (7.2%) individuals developed TB infection among a cohort of 44 050 HIV-diagnosed persons and 149 663 person-years. The cumulative TB incidence rate was 2.13 per 100 person-years with a spike within the first 6 months after HIV diagnosis. TB coinfected patients comprised 18% of the 1880 deaths during follow-up and 79% of deaths (n=967) in the year following HIV diagnosis. TB coinfection (HR 4.77, 95% CI 4.11 to 5.54) was significantly associated with increased all-cause mortality. Analysis of AIDS-related survival showed similar results. DISCUSSION: The unexpected high mortality in patients with HIV-TB in a population with good healthcare access and ART availability highlights the importance of improving active and latent TB case-finding among patients with HIV, and HIV-testing among patients with TB, to ensure appropriate and prompt treatment initiation for both diseases.

Quality of life and associated socio-clinical factors after encephalitis in children and adults in England: a population-based, prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to measure HRQoL in all-cause encephalitis survivors and assess the impact of various socio-clinical factors on outcome. METHODS: We used a prospective cohort study design, using the short-form 36 (SF-36) to measure the HRQoL in patients 15 years and older, and the short-form 10 (SF-10) for patients less than 15 years old. We posted questionnaires to individuals six months after discharge from hospital. All scores were normalised to the age- and sex-matched general population. We used multivariate statistical analysis to assess the relative association of clinical and socio-demographic variables on HRQoL in adults. RESULTS: Of 109 individuals followed-up, we received 61 SF-36 and twenty SF-10 questionnaires (response rate 74%). Patients scored consistently worse than the general population in all domains of the SF-36 and SF-10, although there was variation in individual scores. Infectious encephalitis was associated with the worst HRQoL in those aged 15 years and over, scoring on average 5.64 points less than immune-mediated encephalitis (95% CI -8.77- -2.89). In those aged less than 15 years the worst quality of life followed encephalitis of unknown cause. Immuno compromise, unemployment, and the 35-44 age group all had an independent negative association with HRQoL. A poor Glasgow Outcome Score was most strongly associated with a poor HRQoL. Less than half of those who had made a 'good' recovery on the score reported a HRQoL equivalent to the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Encephalitis has adverse effects on the majority of survivors' wellbeing and quality of life. Many of these adverse consequences could be minimised by prompt identification and treatment, and with better rehabilitation and support for survivors.

Lymphogranuloma venereum diagnoses among men who have sex with men in the U.K.: interpreting a cross-sectional study using an epidemic phase-specific framework.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the drivers behind the epidemic expansion of lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV) cases in late 2009 to help inform infection control. METHODS: An epidemic curve of all LGV diagnoses between 2003 and mid-2012 was plotted and divided into the initial detection period, and endemic, growth and hyperendemic phases. Detailed clinical and behavioural data were collected and logistic regression was used to compare the characteristics of diagnoses made during the growth and endemic phases. RESULTS: Between April 2003 and June 2012, 2138 cases of LGV were diagnosed. Enhanced surveillance data were available for 1370 of whom 1353 were men who have sex with men (MSM). 98% of MSM presented with proctitis, 82% were HIV positive, 20% were hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody positive, and 67% lived in London. Growth phase cases (n=488) were more likely to report meeting sexual contacts at sex parties (11% vs. 6%, p=0.014), unprotected receptive or insertive oral intercourse (93% vs. 86%, p=0.001; 92% vs. 85%, p=0.001) and sharing sex toys (8% vs 4%; p=0.011), and to be diagnosed HIV positive (86% vs. 80%; p=0.014), than endemic phase cases (n=423). Unprotected receptive anal intercourse was equally likely to be reported in both phases (71% vs. 73%). After adjustment, cases in the growth phase were more likely to meet new contacts at sex parties (p=0.031) and be HIV positive (p=0.045). CONCLUSIONS: Rapid epidemic growth coincided with an intensification of unprotected sexual activity among a core population of HIV-positive MSM. Efforts to develop innovative interventions for this hard-to-reach population are needed.

Bilateral chemodectoma: medicolegal considerations on a case report of aeromedical concern.

The authors describe a case of bilateral carotid chemodectoma occurring in a military pilot who was assessed and evaluated in terms of aeromedical and medico-legal aspects for his fitness to fly. In view of the lack of specific guidelines and/or regulations, both national and international, we choose to follow a multidisciplinary clinical approach that included aero-physiological tests in the hypobaric chamber, in order to identify a standard protocol that could be used as reference for similar future cases, where this kind of assessment is necessary.

The geographic relationship between sexual health deprivation and the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010: a comparison of two indices.

OBJECTIVES: To construct an Index of Sexual Health Deprivation (ISHD), examine its sensitivity, investigate the association between the ISHD and the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010 (IMD2010), and interpret the observed geographic variation. METHODS: The modified IMD method was informed by the IMD2010. Thirteen profiles relating to sexual health were selected and grouped into four domains. The observed profile values for each primary care trust (PCT) were smoothed and converted to a normal distribution before principal component analysis. Loadings were used to calculate profile weights. Domain scores were calculated by combining weighted profiles, which were combined to create the ISHD. A Bayesian approach acted as a comparator for the ISHD. RESULTS: Substantial variation in sexual health deprivation was seen across strategic health authorities (SHA). The London SHA had the highest proportion of PCTs (61%) among the most deprived quartile, followed by North-West SHA (29%). More than half of PCTs in East of England (71%), South Central (56%) and South-West (50%) SHAs fell into the least deprived quartile. No PCTs within the East of England, South Central and South-West SHAs were in the most deprived quartile. Only 57% of PCTs were attributed to the same quartile of the ISHD as the IMD2010. The modified IMD method and the Bayesian approach produced consistent results. CONCLUSIONS: The ISHD provides a robust picture of the geography of sexual health and shows a weak association with the IMD2010. It can be used to guide public health action to reduce the geographical gradient in sexual health inequality.

How valuable are multiple treatment comparison methods in evidence-based health-care evaluation?

OBJECTIVES: To compare the use of pair-wise meta-analysis methods to multiple treatment comparison (MTC) methods for evidence-based health-care evaluation to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative health-care interventions based on the available evidence. METHODS: Pair-wise meta-analysis and more complex evidence syntheses, incorporating an MTC component, are applied to three examples: 1) clinical effectiveness of interventions for preventing strokes in people with atrial fibrillation; 2) clinical and cost-effectiveness of using drug-eluting stents in percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with coronary artery disease; and 3) clinical and cost-effectiveness of using neuraminidase inhibitors in the treatment of influenza. We compare the two synthesis approaches with respect to the assumptions made, empirical estimates produced, and conclusions drawn. RESULTS: The difference between point estimates of effectiveness produced by the pair-wise and MTC approaches was generally unpredictable-sometimes agreeing closely whereas in other instances differing considerably. In all three examples, the MTC approach allowed the inclusion of randomized controlled trial evidence ignored in the pair-wise meta-analysis approach. This generally increased the precision of the effectiveness estimates from the MTC model. CONCLUSIONS: The MTC approach to synthesis allows the evidence base on clinical effectiveness to be treated as a coherent whole, include more data, and sometimes relax the assumptions made in the pair-wise approaches. However, MTC models are necessarily more complex than those developed for pair-wise meta-analysis and thus could be seen as less transparent. Therefore, it is important that model details and the assumptions made are carefully reported alongside the results.

Variations in the epidemiology of primary, secondary and early latent syphilis, England and Wales: 1999 to 2008.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate factors associated with variations in diagnoses of primary, secondary and early latent syphilis in England and Wales. METHODS: Data were derived from two sources: diagnoses made in genitourinary medicine clinics reported on form KC60, and information collected through National Enhanced Syphilis Surveillance (NESS). Multinomial regression modelling was used for data analysis. RESULTS: Between 1999 and 2008, 12,021 NESS reports were received, 54% of KC60 reports. The dominant profile of the epidemic was one of white men who have sex with men aged 35-44, often co-infected with HIV, centred in larger cities. During this period, the proportion of primary cases increased over time, while the proportion of secondary cases fell. Primary cases exceeded secondary cases by 2004. The proportion of early latent cases remained relatively stable over time and tended to be lower than that of primary and secondary infection. Patients who attended because they had symptoms of infection, had been identified through partner notification, were HIV positive, and were UK born were more likely to present with primary or secondary infection than with early latent infection. A higher proportion of early latent cases were seen among patients who were Asian, had contacted sexual partners through saunas, bars and the internet, had untraceable partners, and had acquired infection in Manchester. CONCLUSIONS: The continuing syphilis epidemic indicates that control has only been partially effective, with ongoing transmission being sustained. Intensive and targeted efforts delivered locally are required to interrupt further transmission.